Even if the market for exterior doors can reverse this downward trend in 2022, the market volume will still be well below the pre-crisis level in 2023. The market will shrink by an average of 1.5% until 2023, based on the pre-crisis level. The forecasts show that the current crisis will lead to a stronger contraction in economic performance across Europe than the financial crisis in 2009, with Western European countries being more affected by the downturn than Eastern Europe.
The Timing of Recovery Varies
Countries particularly affected by the pandemic, such as Italy, Spain and Great Britain, will suffer the highest relapses. Housing volumes in Western Europe will fall by 12.7% in 2020 and by a further 13.5% in 2021. The low point will be reached in most countries in 2021. However, the Interconnection study also shows that countries such as Austria, Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Portugal are not expected to reach the low point of the negative spiral in residential construction – the most important market for exterior doors – until 2022.
Aluminium Sets the Tone
In the materials sector for exterior doors, aluminum sets the tone with a market share of 30.0%. Aluminum doors have benefited from the increasing popularity, especially in the residential construction segment, in recent years and will continue to expand their market position in the coming years of the crisis. PVC doors are in second place with a share of 25.9%, and thanks to their competitive price-performance ratio, they will be able to maintain their market shares. Overall, residential construction is the strongest customer for exterior doors with 71.4%. In this segment, PVC is in first place and aluminum at eye level, with wooden doors also contributing to around a quarter of sales. In non-residential construction, however, aluminum clearly dominates with a share of 36.2%.
The study for the Western European exterior door market analyses 15 countries (Germany, Switzerland, Austria, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Portugal).